Phil Schiller

Phil did a decent job filling in for Jobs. It did sound slightly like the script was either written for Jobs, or he was trying to sound like Jobs. I’m not sure which. Overall he did pretty good. He’s not Steve Jobs, and expecting him to live up to that is not practical. He did better than most executives do at these events. It was obvious he worked with people who assist Jobs, and likely even got input from Jobs.

Software

A lot of software was released: iLife ’09, iWorks ’09. A few things impressed me, most of it was really not that remarkable. The camera stabilization stuff in iMovie will be welcomed by many, assuming it performs as well as it’s demoed. They didn’t say how well it will do with sub-SD (below standard definition) cameras like cell phones which are becoming increasingly popular. Facial detection in iPhoto is also pretty cool. The precision editor is also something that many people will be happy to see. I never saw GarageBand as more than an novelty app, so I’m not to wowed by the changes.

I’m not sure what to think of this Mac Box Set. The price is decent, but I think almost anyone who is interested in upgrading iLife and iWorks already has Mac OS X 10.5. Those that don’t either don’t care about the latest and greatest features (that’s most of them), or can’t because they use something else that doesn’t work with 10.5. Regardless, I’m not sure how many will really appreciate Mac OS X 10.5 being in the bundle.

17″ MacBook Pro

The 17″ MacBook Pro was obvious since it was a glaring omission last time Apple released the new MacBooks. I’m curious to see the dissection pictures that someone will post over the next few days to see that battery up close. While not “removable” I hope it’s “serviceable” so that you can buy a 3rd party battery online and install it yourself if you don’t want spend so much money and time having Apple do it. Don’t let 1,000 charges fool you. 1,000 charges is actually pretty good, many laptop batteries don’t fair to well at that amount.

The $50 anti-glare option is totally worth it. It’s a shame they don’t offer that on the other models. I think it would be a popular upgrade. I’m not a fan of the glossy displays as I find the matte displays much easier on the eyes.

iTunes

DRM free finally. That’s not a free upgrade though, it will cost you $0.30 per song. No word what percentage of that Apple gets, and what percentage goes to the record labels.

Pricing is now tiered to $0.69, $0.99, and $1.29. Lastly you can now download music over the 3G network on the iPhone. You can also download over EDGE, but that’s unadvertised. I presume the 10MB limit doesn’t apply to purchased music as it does to podcasts and apps, but I’m not sure.

Missing iPhone Firmware Update

Apple promised push messaging would launch in September 2008. Now January 2009 and there’s no word on a completion date. I previously suspected Apple would at least comment on this delay in hopes of keeping customers and developers from getting to go nuts. Push messaging was being seeded to select developers in the summer. It was originally in the iPhone OS 2.1 beta update but pulled before it went final. It’s allegedly still in the works. John Grubber notes that there haven’t been betas of 2.3, which suggests that the next version will be iPhone OS 3.0. That could still be months away. This could get interesting.

MacRumorsLive.com Hack

It was obvious they got hacked ASAP. It was also pretty obvious that it was some folks at 4chan pretty quickly.

Overall

Lots of software, predictable hardware. This was an evolutionary keynote rather than a revolutionary one. There’s a lot of stuff Apple is overdue to update including the Mac Mini which is painfully outdated, Apple TV, iPhone OS among other things. There’s also Snow Leopard which hasn’t been shown off to much yet.

It wasn’t the keynote itself that was a bore, it was the product lineup wasn’t that of previous years. It’s not to say they are bad products, but that they aren’t revolutionary must-have products.

• The usual pep-rally – iPhone App Store is a success, lots of iTunes music download, iPod touch sales strong, Mac sales solid. Users happy. (Probability: 100%)
• iTunes DRM Free Content – More DRM Free Music. Much less likely is video. (Probability: 85%).
• 17″ Unibody MacBook Pro – It’s missing from the lineup. (Probability: 85%).
• iPhone OS 2.3 – Despite a lack of rumors on the iPhone OS 2.3 unlike previous versions which were more publicity tested I still think we will see an announcement on this front. Apple promised push notification back in September. It’s way overdue. If it’s not ready to ship today, I expect Apple will at least give a preview and a date. I also suspect at least one other headliner feature. I’m hoping for Copy&Paste. (Probability: 80%).
• Steve Jobs Health – It’s the elephant in the room. I suspect whomever holds the keynote will mention it. Assuming Steve Jobs himself doesn’t mention it either by video conf. or in person. (Probability: 80%).
• Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard Preview – Apple will give us another taste of what’s to come. I also expect to see a release timeline at least down to a quarter, if not an exact date. My guess is it won’t go GM until at least WWDC. Demo is very possible. (Probability: 75%).
• Revamped Mac Mini – The Mac Mini is overdue for a makeover. The case has been the same since 2005. The internals are getting old. I see a modest speed bump, a refreshed design and NVIDIA chipset. (Probability: 70%).
• Updated iMac – The iMac is about a year old at this point and also still offers an ATI graphics chip in some models. I see that disappearing and NVIDIA taking over. This is in preparation for Snow Leopard who will want more GPU. (Probability: 68%).
• iPhone Nano – I know 2 manufacturers claim to be making cases for it. I still suspect it won’t happen, at least with the iPhone OS we all know. I figure this because it will be hard to use the OS on a screen smaller than the iPhone. That said, Apple may be working on a slimmer cell phone focused more as a music player than an application platform. Think iPod + Phone. Rather than iPhone. (Probability: 51%).
• Updated Apple TV – Mixed feelings on this. Until Apple has a vision for it, I’m not sure they will keep dumping R&D time into this product. (Probability: 50%).
• Random Price Drops – Throughout the keynote, expect prices on low end of each product line to drop compared to current pricing. New slimmed down products to tickle the fancy of those in conservation mode due to the economy. (Probability: 85%).
• iTouch Tablet – I think it will happen eventually, but I don’t expect an announcement soon. I think earliest is 3Q 2009 (TechCrunch suggests the same). More likely at some point in 2010. I think it will replace the MacBook Air and be a slim tablet style notebook borrowing heavily from the Air. I don’t think Apple has the cost-saving chops to produce an oversized iPod touch at a price consumers would go for. (Probability for MWSF: 20%).

There you have it. Those are my guesses. Now lets see what happens.

I should note I do not own either device, but from what I’ve read, it doesn’t matter. Hopefully by 2nd or 3rd generation when I’m on the market Apple will have come to their senses.

The problem is that Apple hasn’t provided a good method for anyone to provide sync with the iPod. Even on older devices it wasn’t pretty, but it was workable. There is no real sync API outside of iSync, which is Mac only and not a public API. Instead what was done is mount the iPod file system and send it your data. While not awesome, this has been workable and provided many Thunderbird users with mobile data.

On the iPhone and iPod touch it’s not even possible to easily mount the filesystem. The best method I’ve heard of is hacking it so you can mount your phone using sshfs with something like FUSE. I know myself and some Linux and Mac users (horray for MacFUSE!) could manage, but I wouldn’t dare try to explain to someone how to do that. From what I’ve read the iPhone manages data using SQLite 3. Therefore it seems possible to use mozStorage to interface with it. Perhaps someone with more experience with mozStorage and db’s generated outside mozStorage would know better about any potential compatibility issues.

Calendar:
/var/root/Library/Calendar/Calendar.sqlitedb

Address BookL
/var/root/Library/AddressBook/AddressBook.sqlitedb
/var/root/Library/AddressBook/AddressBookImages.sqlitedb

Seems to me Apple could turn this into an API pretty easily by re-creating the old iPod style USB storage device mounting and give us access to these files.

In my mind the ideal implementation would be for Apple to just have a iTunes embed a mini web server locally accessible (obviously) and create a REST api to work with all data on the device. That would open up a whole new way of interacting with the device. Essentially you would interact with 127.0.0.1:[port#] and GET/POST your way through the interface. Perfect for Calendar, Address Book, Notes, or whatever else Apple comes up with.

To get a vCard for someone:

  GET /contact/vcard/?last_name=Jones HTTP/1.1
  Host: localhost
  User-Agent: mozPod/0.3

vcard can also be done as xml (ooh DOM parsing for iPhone!), so there’s lots of possibilities.

To add a contact:

  POST /contact/add/ HTTP/1.1
  Host: localhost
  User-Agent: mozPod/0.3
  Content-Length: 450
  Content-Type: application/x-www-form-urlencoded

  fname=John&lname=Doe&address=1%20Large%20Road...

Though it would likely make sense to go with a more vcard like naming structure.

For calendar iCalendar or vCalendar would make most sense:

 GET /calendar/ical/?start=1-1-1970&end=1-19-2038 HTTP/1.1
  Host: localhost
  User-Agent: mozPod/0.3

You get the idea. Dead simple access. You could then use something likecurl to manipulate the iPhone’s address book via your existing application. It would be only accessible locally, so it’s as secure as your system. It would actually make things more secure since it would be one less reason for tinkering on the actual device, and it would open up a whole new market of iPod/iPhone software to go with all those accessories that have helped boost Apple’s market share. SyncML is cool, but SyncML is also a beast and reminds me of SOAP, WSDL etc.

All of this in the first two weeks, and we’ve got fifty more weeks to go.

In all the keynotes I’ve followed, this was the most aggressive agenda. 2008 is going to rock for Apple products.

Leopard Was Successful

No kidding. Vista’s lackluster launch just made it look that much better. Almost 20% upgraded to Leopard. That’s pretty impressive. Especially considering it’s only at 10.5.1. Most don’t like upgrading until x.x.3 allowing for some bug fixes to be released first. Other than that, pretty uneventful.

Time Capsule

Time Capsule is pretty cool. Essentially just an Airport Extreme with a hard drive. Personally I would have liked to see it as two separate devices. So you could easily use it with any network, and plug into an existing Airport. It’s described as containing a “7200-rpm Serial ATA server-grade hard disk drive”. It will be interesting to see what that really is when people dissect them. Most interesting is $499.00 for 1TB. Considering it’s an Airport Extreme + 1 TB storage, that’s a pretty decent deal. I still like my solution better. Customization allowed and more redundant. Time Machine is awesome, so I’d suspect this is a great easy way to backup. Now why can’t apple get Time Machine working over SMB/CIFS?

iPhone

Sales were awesome, SDK still in the plans for late February. Maps with geolocation! Awesome in a big-brother-ish sort of way. Exceptionally awesome considering your iPhone can now be strapped to your dashboard [insert Mac/Dashboard joke here] and used as a GPS device. That’s a lot of value right there. Don’t forget it’s Google Maps too.

SMSing multiple people… personally? Don’t really care. Email, Web, Video makes the iPhone special, not SMS. In my mind it’s like bragging about an OpenSSH upgrade in Leopard. Cool, but isn’t this just expected?

No 3G. Sigh.

iPod touch

For just $20 you can be more like an iPhone and have mail and other iPhone apps! Or you can just use the hacked firmware. Despite the gain, it still feels like the iPod touch is the redheaded stepchild.

Movie Rentals

Awesome. Everyone knew this was coming, and now that it’s here: sweet. What makes it great is all the major studios are participating. Finally something they all can agree on. Unfortunately only becomes available 30 days after DVD release (suck). “Library” title is $2.99, new release is $3.99. Up to 30 days to watch, once watching must finish within 24 hours. Not bad. I expect in 12 months that 24 hours will extend to at least 72hrs.

DVD quality or (optional) HD with Dolby 5.1. $3.99 for library titles, $4.99 for new releases. No word on what “HD” is, but one would assume 720p since that’s all the Apple TV supports.

A big thing stressed is that it goes across devices. You can watch on your TV (via Apple TV), computer, or iPod/iPhone as the image above demonstrates.

Apple TV Take 2

Sounds like new hardware, but like the iPod, the Apple TV announcement is just software. Pretty much, a computer is no longer required. Can rent directly from the interface (which has been revamped). Still no 1080p, a major gripe with many potential buyers. Software available for existing owners (cool). Small price reduction also announced. I still wonder why they didn’t introduce a 1080p at a higher tier and give people the choice. Look at photos, videos all on your TV without using a computer. Very cool.

MacBook Air

What words should be used to describe the MacBook Air? **** awesome? Yea, that about does it. At 3.0lbs, and only 0.74 inches thick, how can you not be impressed? 1.6GHz or 1.8GHz Core 2 Duo. That’s not a Celeron or some other watered down processor. It’s the real thing. 4200 RPM PATA drive, or SSD. PATA and your going to feel sluggish with high IO activities, or solid state (SSD) and you’ll be speeding but broke. Even Steve admits it’s expensive. What a dilemma.

The micro-DVI port is a great touch. A 2nd USB port would have been nice, but considering it’s an ultra portable, no problem with only 1. ExpressCard would have been a major win. I would expect 2nd generation will include one as I’m sure it will be a major gripe among users. Intel GMA X3100 graphics processor was a good choice as well. That brings a good balance of performance and power consumption. Beautiful display. It has an audio out port, but no input. Audio in would be a nice addition, but you could use bluetooth or USB for that, so again not a deal breaker. Lack of a removable battery will cause some to be upset. I’m mixed on that. Not sure if I’d sacrifice size to add in the extra hardware to allow a battery to be secure yet removable on the undercarriage. 2GB RAM on board is pretty nice.

If I were Apple, I’d make a couple of changes:

• More choices in drives. Smaller SSD options going all the way down to 20GB (10GB OS X, 10GB user). I’m sure many would sacrifice size for faster and still portable. Also Hybrid HD’s (both SSD and mechanical) would be a major win.
• ExpressCard port. A staple for business use, a major win for upgrades and accessories.
• Either make the battery user-replaceable (even if it involves a screwdriver) or announce up front what replacement costs. Update: $129 for replacement according to Engadget.

Apple is seriously pushing this as a workable machine. It’s got a full copy of OS X complete with Xcode. That’s right, you can code on this sucker. How awesome is that.

Conclusion/Thoughts

Awesome announcements despite the lack of new hardware that’s so desired. I think there’s a lot more still coming. I expect the iPhone to get an upgrade soon (3G + more storage) and that will be it’s own announcement. Perhaps even next month with the release of the SDK. I also think we’ll see more hardware at WWDC (Mac Mini, MacBook Pro are up for a revamp by my count).

Fun day. I love keynotes.

Hardware images provided courtesy of Apple.

• Mac OS X 10.5 Announced (99% Chance) – That means I get to be a geek and preorder from the Apple store.
• More Video/Movies On iTunes (95% Chance) – This will be a big focus since Apple really wants this market.
• .Mac Overhaul (80% Chance) – Don’t really care about this one personally since I don’t use the service.
• iTV (72% Chance) – I doubt it’s ready. Either an announcement to expect summer delivery, and/or a more detailed preview. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they are ready.
• Incremental Bumps For Various Computers (70% Chance) – Rather lame and generic for a prediction, but I think at least 1 computer line (most likely iMac, and Mac Pro) will see a speed bump. For the Mac Pro it would make most sense, since Intel just announced Quad Core Xeons.
• Airport Extreme 802.11n Edition (68% Chance) – The rumors exist, and I think there is a decent shot. They likely need it for iTV.
• Phone (60% Chance) – If it is, it will be the fabled ‘iPhone’, though likely under another name. Only reason I give it 60% odds is because of all the press. Otherwise I’d put it down to 25%. I don’t think it’s extremely likely, but there is to much press to ignore. Then again, I’m still waiting for my Apple PDA (ended up being the iPod).
• New iPod (51% Chance) – I’m going out on a limb here. Despite pretty much no press, I think it’s time for the full screen iPod, with a true chipset designed for the purpose of video. I mentioned this before.
• Software Upgrade(50% Chance) – Very likely some software, either an iWorks upgrade, or iTunes version.

So there are my predictions. I do believe it will be a very busy MacWorld with more announcements than usual. I expect volume to be one of the more notable things. A lot of things on all fronts. Not so much of a war on Microsoft, but a big grab at the “digital lifestyle”.

Lets see how I pan out this year.

• Apple sent out a notice saying “It’s Show Time“… just smells like a movie service is coming.
• Apple just updated the iMac line, and just released the Mac Pro, so desktop hardware doesn’t seem to likely to be a big focus.
• iPods haven’t been updated in a long time, likely in part because Apple has been redoing them to use a Samsung chipset (Apple already uses Samsung SDRAM) rather than the PortalPlayer chip. Rumored to have a touch screen. Which I mentioned a while back (with a mock-up).
• Apple’s also rumored to reveal a new Airport Express with support for video.
• A cell phone is still said to be in the works (iPhone), but that’s not due until 2007.

I really like the idea of a video enabled Airport Express… I really want one already, and they haven’t even announced it yet.

• Flickr Auction – the popular photo sharing site is holding an auction for prints of some donated photo’s. There’s quite a few reflecting some very talented people. If you’ve got some space for a photo and want to help out, this is a great way.
• eBay is using PayPals to collect money for United Way.
• Amazon is collecting through it’s “Honor System” making it easy to donate to the Red Cross through your Amazon.com account. Google is pointing to this.
• Yahoo is also collecting for the Red Cross through it’s website.
• MSN (Microsoft) is collecting money for the Red Cross.
• Apple made it easy to donate through it’s iTunes service (link opens in iTunes).
• Comcast notes a dozen charities which you can donate to (some accept online, some don’t).
• WritersCafe.net has been pushed rather extensively by Fark.com
• Major League Baseball (MLB) will be holding collections on September 7th (or a day of a teams choosing for teams away on that day).
• AOL is linking to a bunch of charities through NetworkForGood.com.

Feel free to add.

• iTunes reports no CD driver is installed when QuickTime 7 is installed. Go back to 6.5 and it’s having no problems. Why an incompatibility with a fellow Apple product (and a very popular one)?
• Sllooowww. It was significantly slower when opening QuickTime compared to 6.5. Not to mention viewing a movie in my browser was much slower thanks to the plugin needing so long to load. I want thinks fast and simple. Not slow.
• Marketing mania. If I don’t have the pro version, just hide the menu’s and go with that minimal UI stuff that made Apple great. Don’t gray them out and shove them in my face. I like Apple products because they don’t fall for this Microsoft like marketing push. QuickTime 7 broke that trend.

Media Players stink. The big 3 are now bloated garbage. Real Player was first to become so bloated it’s useless. Then came Windows Media Player. QuickTime was my last safe haven of clean simple media. Yes I know there are other products out there, but lets face it, they aren’t as good at handling video and have their issues (especially in regards to browser plugins).

I know some Apple employees read blogs, hopefully from the QuickTime team takes a moment to realize this and look at their product from the customers point of view. It’s a great platform, great video quality, but their player is becoming bloated and slow. It doesn’t feel like a normal Apple product.

Come on Apple. Think Different. Think simple. Think clean, fast, usable applications. Go back to your roots with great Applications. QuickTime 7 isn’t the best you can do. The only good thing in there is H.264. That’s it.

I gave it a spin today, and found it rather good. It’s got a nice design, very usable, and it’s actually pretty informative. I can definitely see myself using it as a frontend for purchasing products.

It’s themed like a mall, and even feature’s a map. There are “raves” (topics of interest), including Firefox!

I’d recommend giving it a look. You can find my profile here. If you join, add me as your friend (if you want to be my friend that is).

Social Networks are part of life on the net now. They provide a new way of interacting unlike more archaic forums and chartrooms. This just adds the dynamic of seeing what products other people like/dislike.

I’m curious how Amazon will respond.

Hopefully they will add an web service so I can make (or find) a WordPress plugin to keep my latest reviews on this blog and a generic signup link.